Do The SAG Award Nominees Predict The Golden Globes Nominations? Yes, & No
On Wednesday, December 9, unofficially kicking off the start of the awards season in Hollywood, the nominations for the 2016 Screen Actor’s Guild Awards. In the leadup to the Academy Awards — the big finale — we’ll watch as celebs walk the red carpets at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, waiting to see whether or not the earlier wins are foreshadowing who’ll end up taking home the Oscar (important info for the pool at your Oscars viewing party, natch).
While in general, the winners of the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes tend to overlap with the Academy Awards, there are enough major differences between the three shows that it’s not always the case. We still have to wait until December 10 to hear who’s been nominated for a Golden Globe, but since we already know who’s up for a SAG, are there any nominees we can expect to see on both lists? Yes, and no.
Because awards season cycles through the same films over and over, it's likely that there will be overlap amongst the nominations. But the Globes cast a wider net when it comes to who and what is nominated (the Golden Globes are given for both TV and film both domestic and foreign), so there's a greater chance we could see new names and new winners announced. It's a win-win for the actors and actresses as well as audiences.
We already know that Trumbo is up for three SAG Awards (including the “Best Picture” equivalent, “Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture”), so it’s probably fair to expect that it’ll do well at the Golden Globes too.
But aside from sheer probability, here are are few things to consider:
The Golden Globes Will Have More Films
According to The Hollywood Reporter, “the Golden Globes nominate twice as many films per year [compared to the SAGs and Oscars,] “due to separate categories for drama and comedy/musical.”
This means that smaller movies, TV shows, and underdog nominees might have more of a chance to see their names on the ballot — particularly in niche categories. So while there may be overlap with the big titles, expect to see some surprises on the Golden Globes nominee list.
Expect All The Big Movies To Be There
If this year’s Golden Globes nominees look anything like last year’s, then there’s a good chance all of the SAG titles for Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture to get a Golden Globe nod too. Just don’t expect them to be in the same category.
Since the Golden Globes separate films based on category (drama vs. comedy or musical), they won’t all be going head-to-head like they will at the SAGs.
It'll Be A Pretty Good Day For All The Supporting Actors
It’s reasonable to expect that the actors who made the cut for SAG supporting actor awards will probably also find their name on the ballot at the Golden Globes. Last year’s only outlier was Jessica Chastain, who benefitted from the Golden Globe’s wider net of nominations compared to the SAGs.
The Golden Globes Tend To Be More Diverse With Their Picks
The SAG Awards are generally thought to be the best predictor of who will win the Oscar, as Academy voters come from inside the film industry, while the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is made up of entertainment editors and writers. But that also means that the SAG Awards are more likely to be more mainstream. Coupled with the greater number (and variety) of categories, this means we might have the chance to see different nominees than the ones who are already shoo-ins to end up at the Oscars.
Of course, the real answers will come once we see the official Golden Globe nominations: nominees heavily favored to win at both ceremonies are significantly more likely to also win at the Oscars. But let’s hope there’s at least some surprises tomorrow — it’s much more fun that way.