Will Hillary Drop Out If Bernie Wins New York? Her Lead Is Significant
The Democratic Party is awaiting the much-anticipated New York primary on April 19, and Hillary Clinton is leading the race with 1,307 pledged delegates and 469 superdelegates, while Bernie Sanders is will enter with 1,087 pledged delegates and 31 superdelegates. That means Clinton probably won't drop out if Sanders wins New York. Since the former Secretary of State has established a lead from earlier in the primaries, the Vermont Senator would still need to win over as many delegates as possible in order to catch up for the upcoming primaries, with 2,383 delegates needed to secure the nomination.
Update: Since last week, there have been both updates and discrepancies in the reporting of the pledged delegate counts in the Democratic primary race leading up to the New York primary. The New York Times' most updated report now shows Sanders' pledged delegate count as 1,094, giving Clinton a 213 lead in pledged delegates. But according to FiveThirtyEight's most recent calculations, Clinton has 1,305 pledged delegates to Sanders' 1,099, And today, some sites have reported, what is perhaps the smallest margin of pledged delegates reported between Sanders and Clinton so far -- that Sanders is trailing Clinton by 194, with Clinton with 1,299 pledged delegates and Sanders 1,105, though it's unclear what's causing such discrepancy in reporting. It's possible events like, the recent delegates added at the Colorado Democratic Convention, play a role. Regardless, it's important for all voters to remain informed as delegate information continues to be updated.
So, for the Sanders supporters feeling hopeful about what the New York primary could mean, Clinton isn't going anywhere after April 19 – whatever the results. It is important to note, however, that polls have shown a favorable outcome for Clinton, being 14 points ahead of Sanders in New York, at 55 percent to 41 percent respectively. But the Democratic Primary race, and, actually, the Republican primary race as well, have taught us that surprising things can happen (I mean ... the rise of Donald Trump??). We've learned that primary wins can indeed shatter previous predictions.
Sanders' symbolic primary win in Michigan proved that the campaign had stronger support than previously recognized, with polls showing Clinton ahead by about 21 points. And while Clinton is a former two-term New York senator, with Sanders' momentum winning eight of the last nine contests (including a contest abroad) and, with news today of his endorsement by New York's transit workers union, The Transport Workers Union Local 100, it seems fair to not totally dismiss the support Sanders has in New York.
But let's recap on what April 19 means for Clinton. New York has 291 delegates up for grabs, 163 pledged, 84-at large and 44 superdelegates, or "unpledged delegates." And delegates matter. Yes, Sanders could rack up more pledged delegates, and better match up to Clinton's, but Clinton's wide lead in superdelegates is important. With superdelegates included, Clinton is leading with a total of 1,776 delegates to Sanders' 1,117. And, although superdelegates can indeed change their minds, it's an uphill battle for Sanders, for sure. So, yeah, Clinton's sticking around.